发布日期：2024-10-06 14:41    点击次数：133

专题：好意思联储晓喻降息50个基点！开启降息周期

　　着手：华尔街见闻

　　“如果经济保抓庄重且通胀抓续存在，好意思联储会改成更渐渐地降息；而如果劳能源商场不测走弱，概况通胀着落速率快于预期，也准备好激进降息往还话。”

　　9月18日周三，好意思联储主席鲍威尔的记者会开释出鹰派信号，好意思股在他语言之处一度连接高潮，随后发现苗头辨认而掉头下挫转跌，重回午盘前的低点，债市、黄金、汇市也180度大回转。

　　这主如若因为鲍威尔称好意思联储仅仅在“律例校准战略态度”，莫得事先设定的战略阶梯，将连接在逐次会议上字据经济数据来作念出决定，畴昔降息速率可快、可慢致使还会暂停。

　　比如他提到了几个战略组合：如果经济保抓庄重且通胀抓续存在，好意思联储会改成更渐渐地降息；而如果劳能源商场不测走弱，概况通胀着落速率快于预期，也准备好激进降息往还话。

　　举座来说，鲍威尔意图拆除商场东谈主士对“大幅降息50个基点成为新常态”的激进押注。

　　以下为他在回答媒体发问前的讲稿全文（中英对照）：

　　Good afternoon， my colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people．

　　下昼好，我和我的共事们仍然专注于完了好意思联储的双重场地，即最大化办事和沉稳物价，以造福好意思国东谈主民。

　　Our economy is strong overall and has made significant progress toward our goals． Over the past two years， the labor market has cooled from its formerly overheated state． Inflation has eased substantially from a peak of 7% to an estimated 2.2% as of August， we‘re committed to maintaining our economy’s strength by supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to our 2% goal．

　　好意思国经济总体强盛，并已朝着咱们的场地取得了紧要进展。在曩昔两年中，劳能源商场已从之前的过热状态降温。末端8月，通货延迟率已从7%的峰值大幅着落至8月份推断的2.2%。好意思联储奋力于通过支抓最大化办事和将通胀率归附到2%的场地来保抓经济强盛。

　　Today， the Federal Open Market Committee decided to reduce the degree of policy restraint by lowering our policy interest rate by a half percentage point． This decision reflects our growing confidence that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance， strength in the labor market can be maintained in a context of moderate growth and inflation moving sustainably down to 2%． We also decided to continue to reduce our securities holdings． I will have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments．

　　今天，联邦公开商场委员会决定裁减战略经管进度，将战略利率下调50个基点。这一决定反应出咱们越来越有信心，只好合适校准咱们的战略态度，劳能源商场的强盛势头就能在情切经济增长和通胀抓续着落至2%的配景下保抓下去。咱们还决定连接缩表。在简要总结经济发展情况后，我凑合货币战略发表更多见解。

　　Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace． GDP rose at an annual rate of 2.2% in the first half of the year， and available data point to a roughly similar pace of growth this quarter． Growth of consumer spending has remained resilient， and investment in equipment and intangibles has picked up from its anemic pace last year． In the housing sector， investment fell back in the second quarter after rising strongly in the first． Improving supply conditions have supported resilient demand in the strong performance of the US economy over the past year． In our summary of economic projections， Committee participants generally expect GDP growth to remain solid， with a median projection of 2% over the next few years．

　　最近的场地显现，好意思国经济举止连接稳步增长。本年上半年，GDP以2.2%的年率增长，现存数据显现三季度的增长速率约莫疏导。耗尽开销增长保抓韧性，设立和无形钞票投资已从前年的疲软速率回升。在住房领域，投资在第一季度强盛增长后在第二季度回落。供应条款的改善撑抓了好意思国经济在曩昔一年强盛证实中的韧性需求侧。在咱们的经济预测摘要中，FOMC委员会参与者多半预测好意思国GDP增长将保抓庄重，畴昔几年的预测中值为2%。

　　In the labor market， conditions have continued to cool． Payroll job gains averaged 116，000 per month over the past three months， a notable step down from the pace seen earlier in the year． The unemployment rate has moved up， but remains low at 4.2%． Nominal wage growth has eased over the past year， and the jobs to workers gap has narrowed overall． A broad set of indicators suggest that conditions in the labor market are now less tight than just before the pandemic in 2019．  The labor market is not a source of elevated in inflationary pressures． The median projection for the unemployment rate in the SEP is 4.4% at the end of this year， four tenths higher than projected in June．

　　劳能源商场情况抓续降温。曩昔三个月，非农办事岗亭平均每月增多11.6万个，与本年早些技能的速率比拟明显放缓。稳定率有所上升，但仍保抓在4.2%的低位。样式工资增长在曩昔一年有所放缓，职位空白与求职东谈主数之间的差距总体上有所缩小。一系列场地标明，劳能源商场的弥留景象现时比2019年疫情爆发前有所缓解。劳能源商场并不是通胀压力高企的根源了。好意思联储经济预测中对本年年底的稳定率中值预测为4.4%，比6月份的预测提升0.4个百分点。

　　Inflation has eased notably over the past two years， but remains above our longer run goal of 2%． Estimates based on the consumer price index and other data indicate that total PCE prices rose 2.2% over the 12 months， ending in August， and that excluding the volatile food and energy categories， core PCE prices rose 2.7%． Longer term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored， as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households， businesses and forecasters， as well as measures from financial markets． The median projection in the SEP for total PCE inflation is 2.3% this year and 2.1% next year， somewhat lower than projected in June． Thereafter． The median projection is 2%．

　　曩昔两年通胀率明显着落，但仍高于咱们2%的永边远位。字据耗尽者价钱指数和其他数据推断，末端8月的12个月内，样式PCE价钱将高潮2.2%，不包括波动较大的食物和能源类别，中枢PCE价钱将高潮2.7%。遥远通胀预期似乎仍精熟锚定，这反应在对家庭、企业和预测者的等闲造访以及金融商场的场地中。好意思联储经济预测中对本年PCE总通胀率的预测中值为2.3%，来岁为2.1%，略低于6月份的预测。2026年及以后的预测中值为2%。

　　Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people． For much of the past three years， inflation ran well above our 2% goal， and labor market conditions were extremely tight． Our primary focus had been on bringing down inflation， and appropriately so， we are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship as it erodes purchasing power， especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food， housing and transportation． Our restrictive monetary policy has helped restore the balance between aggregate supply and demand， easing inflationary pressures and ensuring that inflation expectations remain well anchored．

　　咱们的货币战略行径以促进好意思国东谈主民充分办事和物价沉稳为双重劳动。在曩昔三年的大部分时辰里，通货延迟率远高于咱们2%的场地，劳能源商场景象极其弥留。其时咱们的主要重心是裁减通胀率，这亦然理所应当的，咱们利害地清醒到高通胀会形成紧要贫瘠，因为它会侵蚀购买力，尤其是关于那些最无力承担食物、住房和交通等必需品高老本的东谈主来说。咱们的律例性货币战略有助于归附总供给和总需求之间的均衡，缓解通胀压力并确保通胀预期精熟锚定。

　　Our patient approach over the past year has paid dividends． Inflation is now much closer to our objective， and we have gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2% ． As inflation has declined， the labor market has cooled， the upside risks to inflation have diminished and the downside risks to employment have increased． We now see the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals as roughly in balance， and we are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dual mandate in light of the progress on inflation in the balance of risks．

　　曩昔一年，咱们耐性的策略已获获取报。通胀现时更接近咱们的场地，咱们愈加笃信通胀正抓续向2%迈进。跟着通胀着落，劳能源商场如故降温，通胀的上行风险减少，办事的下行风险增多。咱们现时合计完了办事和通胀场地的风险约莫均衡，鉴于风险均衡中通胀的进展，咱们关切双重使射中各方场地靠近的风险。

　　At today‘s meeting， the committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by a half percentage point to four and three quarters percent to 5%． This recalibration of our policy stance will help maintain the strength of the economy and the labor market， and will continue to enable further progress on inflation as we begin the process of moving toward a more neutral stance．

　　在今天的会议上，委员会决定将联邦基金利率场地区间下调50个基点，至4.75%到5%。这一战略态度的重新校准将有助于保抓经济和劳能源商场的强盛，并将连接鼓舞通胀进一步着落，同期咱们正开动转向更中性的态度。

　　We are not on any preset course． We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting． We know that reducing policy restraint too quickly could hinder progress on inflation． At the same time， reducing restraint too slowly could unduly weaken economic activity and employment． In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate， the Committee will carefully assess incoming data， the evolving outlook and the balance of risks．

　　咱们莫得事先设定的战略阶梯，将连接在每次会议上作念出决定。咱们知谈，过快减少战略律例可能会窒碍通胀降温的进展。同期，过慢减少律例可能会过度削弱经济举止和办事。在筹议对子邦基金利率场地区间进行寥落调度时，委员会将仔细评估行将公布的数据、不绝变化的远景和风险均衡。

　　In our Sep FOMC， participants wrote down their individual assessments of an ap0propriate path for the federal funds rate based on what each participant judges to be the most likely scenario going forward， if the economy evolves as expected． The median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 4.4% at the end of This year and 3.4% at the end of 2025． These median projections are lower than in June， consistent with the projections for lower inflation and higher unemployment as well as the changed balance of risks．

　　在咱们9月份的FOMC会议上，参与官员们字据各自对畴昔最可能出现情况的判断，写下了他们对子邦基金利率合适旅途的评估，前提是经济按预期发展。中位数预测是，联邦基金利率的合适水平在本年年底为4.4%，2025年底为3.4%。这些中位数预测低于6月份的预测，与通胀着落、稳定率上升以及风险均衡变化的预测一致。

　　These projections， however， are not a committee plan or decision． As the economy evolves， monetary policy will adjust in order to best promote our maximum employment and price stability goals． If the economy remains solid and inflation persists， we can dial back policy restraint more slowly． If the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly， or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated， we are prepared to respond．

　　可是，这些预测并非委员会的策划或决定。跟着经济的发展，货币战略将进行调度，以最佳地促进咱们的最大化办事和价钱沉稳场地。如果经济保抓庄重且通胀抓续存在，咱们不错更渐渐地减轻战略律例。如果劳能源商场不测走弱，概况通胀着落速率快于预期，咱们也准备好作念出回话。

　　Policy is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face in pursuing both sides of our dual mandate． The Fed has been assigned two goals for monetary policy， maximum employment and stable prices． We remain committed to supporting maximum employment， bringing inflation back down to our 2% goal， and keeping longer term inflation expectations well anchored． Our success in delivering on these goals matters to all Americans． We understand that our actions affect communities， families and businesses across the country． Everything we do is in service to our public mission． We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals．

　　战略已准备好应酬咱们在扩充双重劳动时靠近的风险和不细则性。好意思联储被赋予了两个货币战略场地：最大化办事和沉稳物价。咱们仍奋力于支抓充分办事，将通胀率降至2%的场地，并保抓遥远通胀预期精熟锚定。咱们能否告捷完了这些场地对扫数好意思国东谈主来说皆至关紧迫。咱们分解，咱们的行径会影响全好意思的社区、家庭和企业。咱们所作念的一切皆是为了扩充咱们的各人劳动。好意思联储将用逸待劳完了最大化办事和物价沉稳的场地。

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